Dutch Elections: Major Parties and Central Topics in Early Election
Citizens in the Netherlands are preparing to possibly exchange the most rightwing administration in recent memory with a more moderate and pragmatic coalition during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for 29 October.
What's Happening and Why It Matters
Early legislative elections were triggered after the collapse of the previous administration in June, when rightwing politician Geert Wilders pulled his PVV from an increasingly fractious and largely ineffective ruling coalition.
The PVV had achieved a surprising first place in the 2023 election, and after prolonged talks formed a unstable multi-party conservative alliance with the BBB party, centrist New Social Contract and center-right VVD.
Nevertheless, Wilders' government allies considered him too controversial for the premier position, which ultimately went to a former intelligence chief. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic polemicist who has required security detail for twenty years, began sniping from outside government.
He ultimately triggered the government collapse on 3 June after his partners refused to implement a far-reaching 10-point anti-immigration plan that included deploying the army to guard frontiers, rejecting all refugee applicants, closing most refugee hostels and sending home all Syrian refugees.
While backing of the PVV has declined, surveys suggest the far-right, Islam-critical party is again likely to win the most seats in parliament. But, main Dutch political formations have all ruled out entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
No fewer than sixteen political groups are predicted to gain representation, but no single party is projected to win more than approximately 20% of the vote. As usual, the future Netherlands administration, typically an significant force on the European and global scene, will emerge only after coalition negotiations that could take several months.
Electoral Mechanics and Political Landscape
There are 150 representatives in the Dutch parliament, meaning a government needs 76 mandates to form a majority. No single party ever manages this, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions for more than a century.
Parliament is elected every four years – sooner when administrations fail – through proportional representation, based on an approved list of contenders in a single, nationwide constituency: any political group that secures less than 1% of the vote is assured of a seat.
Similar to many European nations, Netherlands political life have been marked in recent decades by a significant drop in backing of the historical ruling parties from the centre-right and left, whose share of the vote has shrunk from more than 80% in the eighties to just over 40% now.
Domestically, this process has been accompanied by a remarkable multiplication of smaller parties: twenty-seven are competing this time, including a senior citizens' party, a party for youth, a animal rights party, a basic income advocacy group, and a party for sport.
Key Players and Primary Concerns
Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, forecast to lose up to eight of the thirty-seven mandates it secured last election. It proposes, among other measures, a total moratorium on refugee admissions, Ukrainian men to be sent home, the military to fight "street terrorists", and an termination to "progressive education" in schools.
Two political groups, of the centre-right and centre-left, are closely competing behind the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Netherlands government from the end of the seventies to the beginning of the nineties, and again in the early 2000s, but slumped to just five seats in the last election.
However, under its young leader, its youthful rising star, who entered politics just recently, the party has recovered strongly with a electoral platform highlighting the dire Dutch housing crisis and a promise of "reasonable, respectful governance". It is projected for as many as 26 seats.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an electoral alliance between the green party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is anticipated to become a complete unification, is on track to win a similar number, according to polling averages.
Headed by the seasoned ex-EU official its leader, it has made constructing additional housing its biggest priority, and has controversially included a immigration limit of between 40,000 and 60,000 people a year in its manifesto.
Three additional groups appear set to be important players in the new parliament.
The liberal-progressive D66 is on course to gain seats – capturing up to 17, from its present nine – under its straight-talking youthful head, with a platform centred on housing (it proposes to construct ten new urban centers) and an "individual basic benefit" for recipients.
The liberal-conservative VVD, the political group of the former prime minister (now NATO leader), is forecast to decline to at most 16 seats from its current 24, with its head, criticized of taking the party too far to the right, blamed for its decrease. It is proposing business tax cuts and reduced social benefits.
The anti-establishment, hardline conservative JA21 is a spin-off from another far-right party – the previously successful, now controversy-plagued Forum for Democracy – and appears to be profiting from an departure of supporters from the three major rightwing parties. It could win up to 14 seats.
In addition to the VVD and PVV, both remaining members in the ill-fated previous government, the farmer and centrist parties, are projected to decline, with the centrist party not even sure of legislative seats.
The primary concerns so far have been migration policy, with several – sometimes violent – protests against planned emergency reception centres for refugee applicants, the living expenses, and the perennial Dutch problem of housing (the nation is lacking 400,000 homes).
Possible Coalition Scenarios
Considering the highly fragmented state of Dutch politics, what alliances are actually possible is equally significant as who finishes first (or in this case, probably runner-up, since no major party will govern with Wilders, who maintains he intends to head a minority administration).
Following the vote, MPs first designate an informateur, who explores potential partnerships. Once a viable coalition has been found, a formateur, typically the leader of the largest potential partner, begins discussing the formal coalition agreement. This can take months.
Multiple options look plausible, most involving a combination of political groups from centre left and center right. The most likely, according to coalition experts, include Christian Democrats and GreenLeft/Labour, plus Democrats 66 and several smaller parties possibly incorporating the conservative party.
