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Throughout the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Viktor Orbán stood out as the sole European Union leader to back the Republican candidate. This alignment was hardly surprising, in light of the Hungarian leader's championing of controversial theories including the "great replacement" theory and his suppression of journalistic liberties. Observers observe that Hungary's premier essentially laid the groundwork for Trump's base, with ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon hailing Orbán as Trump's forerunner.

Political Favors In advance of Hungary's Polls

Last week, amid crucial Hungarian elections just approaching in six months, the US president offered electoral assistance. As Mr Orbán pursues a fifth straight win presiding over a nation he labels an illiberal state, his ruling party currently trails in surveys. An official trip to Washington yielded beyond Trump campaign souvenirs; it obtained highly beneficial campaign boosts.

Special Treatment and Fiscal Safeguards

Although previously admonishing European nations on the imperative to eliminate all resource supplies from the Russian Federation, and threatening restrictions against nations continuing to import Russian energy, the US president agreed to grant a special exemption for the Hungarian government – the biggest user in the EU of Russian oil. Per the Hungarian leader, the Trump administration also agreed to provide a economic protection to the Hungarian authorities should it runs into any later issues, particularly since the European Union persists in holding back substantial EU funds to Hungary on grounds of violations of legal standards.

The particulars of this agreement are vague. But Donald Trump illustrated his readiness to assist ideological allies when the United States provided a $20bn emergency credit line to the Argentine leader, the South American leader. Even though the Hungarian PM was unable to arrange a campaign-energising Trump visit to Budapest, the discussions still was a profitable day’s work.

Brussels' Worries and Global Ramifications

Among European leaders, Mr Trump’s intervention will have further underlined the geopolitical stakes of the upcoming vote, prior to which the moderate contender, Magyar, holds a solid advantage in surveys. European leaders know not to look for reliable policies from the US government, and accept the American leader's efforts to belittle the European Union. However Mr Orbán’s exemption – obtained in exchange for an pledge to purchase US gas and nuclear energy – openly contradicts EU aspirations to end Russian oil and gas by the target date.

• Starting in 2022, the two biggest EU importers of Russian oil, the Hungarian and Slovak nations, have provided well over £10bn to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• At the same time, the Hungarian government has often employed the veto power to stymie progress in negotiations for Ukraine's EU membership.
• While Europe works to forge a unified and effective strategy for aiding the Ukrainian government, and strengthening its hand in any upcoming peace talks, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the negotiating table is still a key barrier.

Rival's Approach

Péter Magyar has refrained from pledging a significant change on the war in Ukraine, and directed his efforts on domestic issues, while stressing the importance for Hungary to finally behave as a constructive EU member. Following persistent provocations, Brussels can only remain patient. Mr Orbán’s indifference to fundamental European principles, such as the support for minority protections and the independence of civil society institutions, has persisted as a deeply troubling issue for the bloc. His continued obstructionism on the Ukraine issue could harm its security prospects.